Summer Reset for Dairy Markets

An article by Terrain

After rising more than expected in April and May, nonfat dry milk prices have fallen rapidly in early June, seeking a new equilibrium. The initially high prices, due to tight supplies in the scramble for protein, became out of line with global prices, which isn’t sustainable long term.

Nonfat dry milk and whey have been the commodities that have seen prices climb because of strong protein demand from consumers, but neither of these commodities impacts the protein component value in federal order calculations.

Continued export strength will be important support for Class III and Class IV prices. I project Class III prices to average $17.25/cwt in the second half of 2026 and Class IV to average $18.50/cwt. Whether macroeconomic impacts shake up consumer behavior will also be an important risk factor to watch.

For the full article click here